Новые атаки на Бейрут делают базы США и Израиля законными целями для Ирана - депутат

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's parliament speaker confirms Iranian military action against US or Israeli bases in retaliation for attacks on Beirut. This triggers a series of escalating actions: Iran deploys ballistic missiles, Israel retaliates with airstrikes, and the US responds with increased sanctions. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Public statements from Iranian officials explicitly threatening US or Israeli targets; 2) Increased military activity near US or Israeli bases in the Middle East. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The international community condemns the attacks on Beirut and calls for de-escalation. The US, Israel, and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful resolution. The Lebanese government negotiates with both sides. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Public st

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's parliament speaker confirms Iranian military action against US or Israeli bases in retaliation for attacks on Beirut. This triggers a series of escalating actions: Iran deploys ballistic missiles, Israel retaliates with airstrikes, and the US responds with increased sanctions. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Public statements from Iranian officials explicitly threatening US or Israeli targets; 2) Increased military activity near US or Israeli bases in the Middle East. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The international community condemns the attacks on Beirut and calls for de-escalation. The US, Israel, and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful resolution. The Lebanese government negotiates with both sides. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Public st

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's parliament speaker confirms Iranian military action against US or Israeli bases in retaliation for attacks on Beirut. This triggers a series of escalating actions: Iran deploys ballistic missiles, Israel retaliates with airstrikes, and the US responds with increased sanctions. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Public statements from Iranian officials explicitly threatening US or Israeli targets; 2) Increased military activity near US or Israeli bases in the Middle East. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The international community condemns the attacks on Beirut and calls for de-escalation. The US, Israel, and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful resolution. The Lebanese government negotiates with both sides. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Public st