ОПЕК+ и руководители авиационной отрасли обсуждают последствия войны с Ираном на дуэльных конференциях

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Tensions escalate following OPEC+ meeting. Iran accuses other members of bias in energy policies and threatens retaliation. This leads to increased military activity along the border, potentially including drone attacks or limited-scale air strikes. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials, increased military presence on both sides of the border, and a surge in regional tensions as evidenced by diplomatic channels being cut off. * **Time horizon:** 10 days to 2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** OPEC+ members continue their monthly meeting while airline executives address the conflict's impact on travel and logistics. The focus remains on mitigating short-term disruptions, with discussions on alternative routes and supply chain adjustments. * **Confirmation ind

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Tensions escalate following OPEC+ meeting. Iran accuses other members of bias in energy policies and threatens retaliation. This leads to increased military activity along the border, potentially including drone attacks or limited-scale air strikes. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials, increased military presence on both sides of the border, and a surge in regional tensions as evidenced by diplomatic channels being cut off. * **Time horizon:** 10 days to 2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** OPEC+ members continue their monthly meeting while airline executives address the conflict's impact on travel and logistics. The focus remains on mitigating short-term disruptions, with discussions on alternative routes and supply chain adjustments. * **Confirmation ind

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Tensions escalate following OPEC+ meeting. Iran accuses other members of bias in energy policies and threatens retaliation. This leads to increased military activity along the border, potentially including drone attacks or limited-scale air strikes. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials, increased military presence on both sides of the border, and a surge in regional tensions as evidenced by diplomatic channels being cut off. * **Time horizon:** 10 days to 2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** OPEC+ members continue their monthly meeting while airline executives address the conflict's impact on travel and logistics. The focus remains on mitigating short-term disruptions, with discussions on alternative routes and supply chain adjustments. * **Confirmation ind