Более миллиона человек наводнили улицы Мадрида, чтобы увидеть, как Папа Лев возглавляет мессу под открытым небом.

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Increased political tensions in Spain arise due to public outcry over the Pope's visit and perceived religious dominance. This leads to a surge in protests, with some groups potentially resorting to violence or vandalism. The situation escalates as authorities struggle to maintain order and control the crowds. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased media coverage of protests and clashes between demonstrators and police, followed by reports of potential threats or incidents of property damage. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Pope's visit is largely successful, with the event being celebrated as a unifying cultural moment for Spain and a testament to religious tradition. The positive media attention overshadows any minor disruptions or tensions, leading to increased

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Increased political tensions in Spain arise due to public outcry over the Pope's visit and perceived religious dominance. This leads to a surge in protests, with some groups potentially resorting to violence or vandalism. The situation escalates as authorities struggle to maintain order and control the crowds. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased media coverage of protests and clashes between demonstrators and police, followed by reports of potential threats or incidents of property damage. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Pope's visit is largely successful, with the event being celebrated as a unifying cultural moment for Spain and a testament to religious tradition. The positive media attention overshadows any minor disruptions or tensions, leading to increased

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Increased political tensions in Spain arise due to public outcry over the Pope's visit and perceived religious dominance. This leads to a surge in protests, with some groups potentially resorting to violence or vandalism. The situation escalates as authorities struggle to maintain order and control the crowds. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased media coverage of protests and clashes between demonstrators and police, followed by reports of potential threats or incidents of property damage. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Pope's visit is largely successful, with the event being celebrated as a unifying cultural moment for Spain and a testament to religious tradition. The positive media attention overshadows any minor disruptions or tensions, leading to increased