Высказывания Трампа вызывают беспокойство у союзников в Персидском заливе

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's verbal assaults against longstanding mediator, leading to a diplomatic rift between Washington and Gulf states. The US President's rhetoric escalates into direct threats of military action, potentially prompting retaliatory measures from the Gulf nations. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased public statements from Gulf leaders expressing concern over US policy and potential for conflict, followed by a formal statement from the White House outlining specific diplomatic actions to address concerns. **Time horizon:** 30-60 days. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current political climate remains relatively stable. Gulf states maintain their diplomatic channels with Washington and continue to engage in economic cooperation. **Confirmation indicators:** Continued trade agreements between the US and Gulf nations, no signi

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's verbal assaults against longstanding mediator, leading to a diplomatic rift between Washington and Gulf states. The US President's rhetoric escalates into direct threats of military action, potentially prompting retaliatory measures from the Gulf nations. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased public statements from Gulf leaders expressing concern over US policy and potential for conflict, followed by a formal statement from the White House outlining specific diplomatic actions to address concerns. **Time horizon:** 30-60 days. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current political climate remains relatively stable. Gulf states maintain their diplomatic channels with Washington and continue to engage in economic cooperation. **Confirmation indicators:** Continued trade agreements between the US and Gulf nations, no signi

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's verbal assaults against longstanding mediator, leading to a diplomatic rift between Washington and Gulf states. The US President's rhetoric escalates into direct threats of military action, potentially prompting retaliatory measures from the Gulf nations. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased public statements from Gulf leaders expressing concern over US policy and potential for conflict, followed by a formal statement from the White House outlining specific diplomatic actions to address concerns. **Time horizon:** 30-60 days. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current political climate remains relatively stable. Gulf states maintain their diplomatic channels with Washington and continue to engage in economic cooperation. **Confirmation indicators:** Continued trade agreements between the US and Gulf nations, no signi