Нефть подскочила, поскольку нападения Ирана на Израиль поставили под угрозу прекращение огня

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's missile strikes on Israel trigger retaliatory actions from Israel and potentially other regional powers. This escalation could lead to a wider conflict, including increased military mobilization in the Middle East and heightened tensions between major players like Saudi Arabia and Iran. * **Confirmation indicators:** Israel announces an increase in military presence near Iranian borders within 24 hours, followed by a statement from the UN Security Council condemning Iran's actions. * **Time horizon:** Escalation could reach peak intensity within 7-10 days, with potential for sustained conflict lasting weeks to months. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Baseline:** Negotiations between Israel and Iran continue, albeit at a slower pace, with limited progress on the ceasefire agreement. The threat of escalati

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's missile strikes on Israel trigger retaliatory actions from Israel and potentially other regional powers. This escalation could lead to a wider conflict, including increased military mobilization in the Middle East and heightened tensions between major players like Saudi Arabia and Iran. * **Confirmation indicators:** Israel announces an increase in military presence near Iranian borders within 24 hours, followed by a statement from the UN Security Council condemning Iran's actions. * **Time horizon:** Escalation could reach peak intensity within 7-10 days, with potential for sustained conflict lasting weeks to months. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Baseline:** Negotiations between Israel and Iran continue, albeit at a slower pace, with limited progress on the ceasefire agreement. The threat of escalati

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's missile strikes on Israel trigger retaliatory actions from Israel and potentially other regional powers. This escalation could lead to a wider conflict, including increased military mobilization in the Middle East and heightened tensions between major players like Saudi Arabia and Iran. * **Confirmation indicators:** Israel announces an increase in military presence near Iranian borders within 24 hours, followed by a statement from the UN Security Council condemning Iran's actions. * **Time horizon:** Escalation could reach peak intensity within 7-10 days, with potential for sustained conflict lasting weeks to months. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Baseline:** Negotiations between Israel and Iran continue, albeit at a slower pace, with limited progress on the ceasefire agreement. The threat of escalati