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geopolitical··severity 6

Как страны мира отреагировали на войну США и Израиля против Ирана?

Война, которая идет уже 100-й день, спровоцировала глобальный энергетический кризис, вызвав обеспокоенность мировых лидеров.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The war escalates with increased military action and targeted sanctions against Iran's energy infrastructure. This leads to a global spike in oil prices, triggering rationing measures and political instability in several countries. Tensions rise between major powers, potentially leading to a direct confrontation. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Increased reports of Iranian missile attacks on US or Israeli targets; 2) The UN Security Council votes to impose new sanctions against Iran's nuclear program. * Time horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The international community continues diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict, focusing on humanitarian aid for affected populations and ensuring access to critical resources like fuel and medical supplies. The war's economic impact

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Increased reports of Iranian missile attacks on US or Israeli targets; 2) The UN Security Council votes to impose new sanctions against Iran's nuclear program., * **Time horizon:** 30, 60 days
B

Status Quo

38%

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The war escalates with increased military action and targeted sanctions against Iran's energy infrastructure. This leads to a global spike in oil prices, triggering rationing measures and political instability in several countries. Tensions rise between major powers, potentially leading to a direct confrontation. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Increased reports of Iranian missile attacks on US or Israeli targets; 2) The UN Security Council votes to impose new sanctions against Iran's nuclear program. * Time horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The international community continues diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict, focusing on humanitarian aid for affected populations and ensuring access to critical resources like fuel and medical supplies. The war's economic impact

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Increased reports of Iranian missile attacks on US or Israeli targets; 2) The UN Security Council votes to impose new sanctions against Iran's nuclear program., * **Time horizon:** 30, 60 days
C

De-escalation

13%

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The war escalates with increased military action and targeted sanctions against Iran's energy infrastructure. This leads to a global spike in oil prices, triggering rationing measures and political instability in several countries. Tensions rise between major powers, potentially leading to a direct confrontation. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Increased reports of Iranian missile attacks on US or Israeli targets; 2) The UN Security Council votes to impose new sanctions against Iran's nuclear program. * Time horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The international community continues diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict, focusing on humanitarian aid for affected populations and ensuring access to critical resources like fuel and medical supplies. The war's economic impact

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Increased reports of Iranian missile attacks on US or Israeli targets; 2) The UN Security Council votes to impose new sanctions against Iran's nuclear program., * **Time horizon:** 30, 60 days

Первичный источник: Al Jazeera

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