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geopolitical··severity 6

Спад занятости в Великобритании усугубляется, поскольку проблемы Стармера усугубляют препятствия, сообщает REC

Согласно опросу, проведенному Банком Англии, британские работодатели в мае сократили прием на работу ускоренными темпами на фоне продолжающейся войны на Ближнем Востоке и политических потрясений внутри страны.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** UK political turmoil intensifies as Starmer's leadership faces growing scrutiny and potential challenge from within his own party. This leads to market uncertainty, impacting investor confidence and potentially triggering a sell-off in key sectors like financial services and technology. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline:** The UK economy continues to face headwinds from global economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainty. Hiring remains subdued, but the Bank of England maintains a cautious stance on interest rate hikes.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased media coverage focusing on internal Labour Party tensions and public disapproval of Starmer's performance, followed by calls for leadership changes within the party.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** UK political turmoil intensifies as Starmer's leadership faces growing scrutiny and potential challenge from within his own party. This leads to market uncertainty, impacting investor confidence and potentially triggering a sell-off in key sectors like financial services and technology. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline:** The UK economy continues to face headwinds from global economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainty. Hiring remains subdued, but the Bank of England maintains a cautious stance on interest rate hikes.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased media coverage focusing on internal Labour Party tensions and public disapproval of Starmer's performance, followed by calls for leadership changes within the party.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** UK political turmoil intensifies as Starmer's leadership faces growing scrutiny and potential challenge from within his own party. This leads to market uncertainty, impacting investor confidence and potentially triggering a sell-off in key sectors like financial services and technology. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline:** The UK economy continues to face headwinds from global economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainty. Hiring remains subdued, but the Bank of England maintains a cautious stance on interest rate hikes.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased media coverage focusing on internal Labour Party tensions and public disapproval of Starmer's performance, followed by calls for leadership changes within the party.

Первичный источник: Bloomberg Markets

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