Иордания осудила нападение Израиля на ливанский военный конвой
Иордания осуждает нападение Израиля на ливанский военный конвой Министерство иностранных дел и по делам иностранцев Иордании призвало к немедленному прекращению атак Израиля на Ливан и назвало смертельный удар по ливанскому военному конвою «вопиющим нарушением суверенитета, безопасности и стабильности» страны. По сообщению государственного информационного агентства Petra, официальный представитель министерства иностранных дел Фуад Маджали выразил соболезнования правительству Ливана и семьям погибших, одновременно подтвердив «непоколебимую поддержку» Иордании Ливану. Маджали также заявил, что Иордания поддерживает усилия правительства Ливана по утверждению власти на всей территории Ливана, укреплению государственных институтов и обеспечению того, чтобы оружие оставалось исключительно под контролем государства.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel escalates military operations in Lebanon, increasing tensions between Israel and Lebanon. Jordan increases diplomatic pressure on both sides, including potential support for a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israeli actions. This could lead to increased regional instability, with Hezbollah potentially retaliating against Israeli targets. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Increased reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting Lebanese military positions, 2) A formal statement from the UNSC condemning Israel's actions, 3) Jordan mobilizing troops along its border with Lebanon. * **Time Horizon:** Within 7 days to two weeks. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident sparks diplomatic efforts between Israel and Lebanon, possibly through the UN or regional mediators. Jordan plays a role in t
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel escalates military operations in Lebanon, increasing tensions between Israel and Lebanon. Jordan increases diplomatic pressure on both sides, including potential support for a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israeli actions. This could lead to increased regional instability, with Hezbollah potentially retaliating against Israeli targets. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Increased reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting Lebanese military positions, 2) A formal statement from the UNSC condemning Israel's actions, 3) Jordan mobilizing troops along its border with Lebanon. * **Time Horizon:** Within 7 days to two weeks. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident sparks diplomatic efforts between Israel and Lebanon, possibly through the UN or regional mediators. Jordan plays a role in t
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel escalates military operations in Lebanon, increasing tensions between Israel and Lebanon. Jordan increases diplomatic pressure on both sides, including potential support for a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israeli actions. This could lead to increased regional instability, with Hezbollah potentially retaliating against Israeli targets. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Increased reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting Lebanese military positions, 2) A formal statement from the UNSC condemning Israel's actions, 3) Jordan mobilizing troops along its border with Lebanon. * **Time Horizon:** Within 7 days to two weeks. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident sparks diplomatic efforts between Israel and Lebanon, possibly through the UN or regional mediators. Jordan plays a role in t
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
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