Министр иностранных дел Эстонии ответил на удар России по украинскому хранилищу ядерных отходов

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia escalates its actions by deploying tactical nuclear weapons in the Baltic region as a response to Estonia's condemnation of the Ukrainian strike, potentially targeting NATO infrastructure. This triggers heightened tensions between Russia and NATO allies. * Public statements from Russian officials explicitly linking the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the Estonian incident. * Increased military activity in the Baltic region, including increased air patrols and naval exercises. * NATO member states publicly expressing concern about potential escalation. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Estonian Foreign Minister's response is met with a diplomatic effort from the EU to de-escalate tensions. The international community calls for restraint and emphas

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia escalates its actions by deploying tactical nuclear weapons in the Baltic region as a response to Estonia's condemnation of the Ukrainian strike, potentially targeting NATO infrastructure. This triggers heightened tensions between Russia and NATO allies. * Public statements from Russian officials explicitly linking the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the Estonian incident. * Increased military activity in the Baltic region, including increased air patrols and naval exercises. * NATO member states publicly expressing concern about potential escalation. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Estonian Foreign Minister's response is met with a diplomatic effort from the EU to de-escalate tensions. The international community calls for restraint and emphas

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia escalates its actions by deploying tactical nuclear weapons in the Baltic region as a response to Estonia's condemnation of the Ukrainian strike, potentially targeting NATO infrastructure. This triggers heightened tensions between Russia and NATO allies. * Public statements from Russian officials explicitly linking the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the Estonian incident. * Increased military activity in the Baltic region, including increased air patrols and naval exercises. * NATO member states publicly expressing concern about potential escalation. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Estonian Foreign Minister's response is met with a diplomatic effort from the EU to de-escalate tensions. The international community calls for restraint and emphas