США и Иран кажутся далекими от мирного соглашения спустя 100 дней после начала войны

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** US and Israel increase military presence in Middle East. Iran retaliates with increased attacks on US-allied targets. Tensions rise, leading to a potential escalation into full-scale conflict. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased rhetoric from US officials regarding "all options" being on the table, followed by Iranian confirmation of missile tests targeting US bases. **Time horizon:** 14 days to 3 weeks. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** US and Iran continue negotiating a ceasefire agreement with limited progress. The fragile ceasefire remains in place, but tensions remain high. **Confirmation indicators:** A UN-brokered meeting between US and Iranian officials scheduled for the next two weeks, followed by a press release stating "significant progress" made on negotiations. **Time horizon:** 60 days to 90 days. ## Scenario C

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** US and Israel increase military presence in Middle East. Iran retaliates with increased attacks on US-allied targets. Tensions rise, leading to a potential escalation into full-scale conflict. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased rhetoric from US officials regarding "all options" being on the table, followed by Iranian confirmation of missile tests targeting US bases. **Time horizon:** 14 days to 3 weeks. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** US and Iran continue negotiating a ceasefire agreement with limited progress. The fragile ceasefire remains in place, but tensions remain high. **Confirmation indicators:** A UN-brokered meeting between US and Iranian officials scheduled for the next two weeks, followed by a press release stating "significant progress" made on negotiations. **Time horizon:** 60 days to 90 days. ## Scenario C

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** US and Israel increase military presence in Middle East. Iran retaliates with increased attacks on US-allied targets. Tensions rise, leading to a potential escalation into full-scale conflict. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased rhetoric from US officials regarding "all options" being on the table, followed by Iranian confirmation of missile tests targeting US bases. **Time horizon:** 14 days to 3 weeks. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** US and Iran continue negotiating a ceasefire agreement with limited progress. The fragile ceasefire remains in place, but tensions remain high. **Confirmation indicators:** A UN-brokered meeting between US and Iranian officials scheduled for the next two weeks, followed by a press release stating "significant progress" made on negotiations. **Time horizon:** 60 days to 90 days. ## Scenario C