Празднования в Тегеране, когда ракеты летят над Израилем

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran confirms missile test as "defense" against Israeli actions in disputed territories. Israel retaliates with targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites, escalating tensions. This triggers a broader regional arms race and an increase in diplomatic pressure from the UN Security Council. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Iran publicly accuses Israel of aggression, followed by a statement from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard confirming missile test details. Israel acknowledges targeting specific Iranian facilities but refrains from public statements regarding retaliation. * **Time Horizon:** Escalation within 72 hours, with potential for sustained conflict within 14 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Iranian celebrations in Tehran are met with muted response from the international community and li

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran confirms missile test as "defense" against Israeli actions in disputed territories. Israel retaliates with targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites, escalating tensions. This triggers a broader regional arms race and an increase in diplomatic pressure from the UN Security Council. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Iran publicly accuses Israel of aggression, followed by a statement from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard confirming missile test details. Israel acknowledges targeting specific Iranian facilities but refrains from public statements regarding retaliation. * **Time Horizon:** Escalation within 72 hours, with potential for sustained conflict within 14 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Iranian celebrations in Tehran are met with muted response from the international community and li

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran confirms missile test as "defense" against Israeli actions in disputed territories. Israel retaliates with targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites, escalating tensions. This triggers a broader regional arms race and an increase in diplomatic pressure from the UN Security Council. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Iran publicly accuses Israel of aggression, followed by a statement from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard confirming missile test details. Israel acknowledges targeting specific Iranian facilities but refrains from public statements regarding retaliation. * **Time Horizon:** Escalation within 72 hours, with potential for sustained conflict within 14 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Iranian celebrations in Tehran are met with muted response from the international community and li