Главный дипломат Ирана проинформировал Великобританию, Турцию и Пакистан после ударов Израиля
Главный дипломат Ирана информирует Великобританию, Турцию и Пакистан после ударов Израиля Министр иностранных дел Ирана Аббас Арагчи провел отдельные разговоры со своими коллегами в Великобритании и Турции, а также с пакистанскими посредниками после последней эскалации ситуации в Ливане. Министерство иностранных дел Ирана заявило, что переговоры были сосредоточены на «последних событиях» в регионе и реакции Тегерана на «неоднократные нарушения Израилем режима прекращения огня в Ливане». Дипломатический толчок последовал после того, как Иран выпустил баллистические ракеты по северному Израилю в ответ на израильские удары по Бейруту.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel escalates military actions in Lebanon, leading to Iran retaliating with further strikes on Israeli targets. This escalation triggers increased tensions between Israel and Iran, potentially escalating into a wider regional conflict involving Hezbollah and other proxy groups. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased activity by both Israeli and Iranian militaries in the region, including air strikes and missile launches, followed by reports of heightened military deployments and increased rhetoric from both sides. * **Time Horizon:** Within 7-14 days, escalating to a full-fledged regional conflict within two weeks if not contained. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Diplomatic efforts continue between Israel, Iran, and their allies. The international community urges de-escalation through diplomatic
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel escalates military actions in Lebanon, leading to Iran retaliating with further strikes on Israeli targets. This escalation triggers increased tensions between Israel and Iran, potentially escalating into a wider regional conflict involving Hezbollah and other proxy groups. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased activity by both Israeli and Iranian militaries in the region, including air strikes and missile launches, followed by reports of heightened military deployments and increased rhetoric from both sides. * **Time Horizon:** Within 7-14 days, escalating to a full-fledged regional conflict within two weeks if not contained. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Diplomatic efforts continue between Israel, Iran, and their allies. The international community urges de-escalation through diplomatic
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel escalates military actions in Lebanon, leading to Iran retaliating with further strikes on Israeli targets. This escalation triggers increased tensions between Israel and Iran, potentially escalating into a wider regional conflict involving Hezbollah and other proxy groups. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased activity by both Israeli and Iranian militaries in the region, including air strikes and missile launches, followed by reports of heightened military deployments and increased rhetoric from both sides. * **Time Horizon:** Within 7-14 days, escalating to a full-fledged regional conflict within two weeks if not contained. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Diplomatic efforts continue between Israel, Iran, and their allies. The international community urges de-escalation through diplomatic
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
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