Без реформ Европа рискует столкнуться с «массовой безработицей», предупреждает глава ABB

## Scenario Forecasts **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Wierod's calls for deregulation lead to a surge in energy prices as EU countries attempt to implement his recommendations, leading to increased production costs and reduced competitiveness. This triggers a wave of layoffs across various sectors as companies struggle to adapt to the new economic realities. The escalation could trigger political instability within several European nations as unemployment rates soar. * **Confirmation indicators:** EU Commission announces a delay in deregulation efforts due to lack of consensus, followed by a significant increase in energy prices (e.g., a 15% spike in gas prices) and a rise in public protests against economic policies. * **Time horizon:** 6-8 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The EU continues to grapple with the energy crisis, but no significant

## Scenario Forecasts **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Wierod's calls for deregulation lead to a surge in energy prices as EU countries attempt to implement his recommendations, leading to increased production costs and reduced competitiveness. This triggers a wave of layoffs across various sectors as companies struggle to adapt to the new economic realities. The escalation could trigger political instability within several European nations as unemployment rates soar. * **Confirmation indicators:** EU Commission announces a delay in deregulation efforts due to lack of consensus, followed by a significant increase in energy prices (e.g., a 15% spike in gas prices) and a rise in public protests against economic policies. * **Time horizon:** 6-8 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The EU continues to grapple with the energy crisis, but no significant

## Scenario Forecasts **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Wierod's calls for deregulation lead to a surge in energy prices as EU countries attempt to implement his recommendations, leading to increased production costs and reduced competitiveness. This triggers a wave of layoffs across various sectors as companies struggle to adapt to the new economic realities. The escalation could trigger political instability within several European nations as unemployment rates soar. * **Confirmation indicators:** EU Commission announces a delay in deregulation efforts due to lack of consensus, followed by a significant increase in energy prices (e.g., a 15% spike in gas prices) and a rise in public protests against economic policies. * **Time horizon:** 6-8 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The EU continues to grapple with the energy crisis, but no significant