В Армении открылись выборы в качестве проверки отхода премьер-министра от России
В воскресенье в Армении открываются избирательные участки, целью которых станет проверка связей бывшей советской республики с Россией. Поскольку премьер-министр Никол Пашинян стремился ослабить зависимость от Москвы, Кремль обвиняют в стремлении склонить голосование и амбиции Армении в ЕС на тот же путь, который, как он утверждает, спровоцировал вторжение на Украину в 2022 году.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** 1. Kremlin intensifies pressure on Armenia through diplomatic channels and media outlets, accusing Pashinyan of siding with Western powers and undermining strategic ties. 2. Armenian opposition parties, backed by Russia, launch a coordinated campaign to undermine Pashinyan's popularity. 3. Tensions escalate, leading to increased military exercises near the Armenian border with Azerbaijan. **Time Horizon:** 10-14 days * Increased rhetoric from Kremlin officials and state media against Pashinyan. * Public statements by opposition leaders accusing Pashinyan of betraying Armenia's interests. * An increase in military deployments along the Armenian-Azerbaijan border. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** 1. The election takes place as scheduled, with a relatively high turnout. 2. Pashinyan maintains his cu
Status Quo
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** 1. Kremlin intensifies pressure on Armenia through diplomatic channels and media outlets, accusing Pashinyan of siding with Western powers and undermining strategic ties. 2. Armenian opposition parties, backed by Russia, launch a coordinated campaign to undermine Pashinyan's popularity. 3. Tensions escalate, leading to increased military exercises near the Armenian border with Azerbaijan. **Time Horizon:** 10-14 days * Increased rhetoric from Kremlin officials and state media against Pashinyan. * Public statements by opposition leaders accusing Pashinyan of betraying Armenia's interests. * An increase in military deployments along the Armenian-Azerbaijan border. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** 1. The election takes place as scheduled, with a relatively high turnout. 2. Pashinyan maintains his cu
De-escalation
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** 1. Kremlin intensifies pressure on Armenia through diplomatic channels and media outlets, accusing Pashinyan of siding with Western powers and undermining strategic ties. 2. Armenian opposition parties, backed by Russia, launch a coordinated campaign to undermine Pashinyan's popularity. 3. Tensions escalate, leading to increased military exercises near the Armenian border with Azerbaijan. **Time Horizon:** 10-14 days * Increased rhetoric from Kremlin officials and state media against Pashinyan. * Public statements by opposition leaders accusing Pashinyan of betraying Armenia's interests. * An increase in military deployments along the Armenian-Azerbaijan border. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** 1. The election takes place as scheduled, with a relatively high turnout. 2. Pashinyan maintains his cu
Первичный источник: France24
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