Израиль и Иран прекращают контрудары

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's ceasefire extension request is rejected by both Israel and Iran. Tensions escalate as each side accuses the other of violating the agreement and begins to prepare for a renewed offensive. This could trigger increased military deployments, drone strikes, and cyberattacks. **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Reports of heightened activity on Israeli and Iranian military networks. 2) Increased public statements from both sides threatening further action if their demands aren't met. **Time Horizon:** 7 to 14 days ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The ceasefire extension is accepted by both Israel and Iran, with a commitment to continued dialogue facilitated by the US. This leads to a period of relative calm, but tensions remain high. **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) A joint statement from Trump and the leaders of Israel and Iran

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's ceasefire extension request is rejected by both Israel and Iran. Tensions escalate as each side accuses the other of violating the agreement and begins to prepare for a renewed offensive. This could trigger increased military deployments, drone strikes, and cyberattacks. **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Reports of heightened activity on Israeli and Iranian military networks. 2) Increased public statements from both sides threatening further action if their demands aren't met. **Time Horizon:** 7 to 14 days ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The ceasefire extension is accepted by both Israel and Iran, with a commitment to continued dialogue facilitated by the US. This leads to a period of relative calm, but tensions remain high. **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) A joint statement from Trump and the leaders of Israel and Iran

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's ceasefire extension request is rejected by both Israel and Iran. Tensions escalate as each side accuses the other of violating the agreement and begins to prepare for a renewed offensive. This could trigger increased military deployments, drone strikes, and cyberattacks. **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Reports of heightened activity on Israeli and Iranian military networks. 2) Increased public statements from both sides threatening further action if their demands aren't met. **Time Horizon:** 7 to 14 days ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The ceasefire extension is accepted by both Israel and Iran, with a commitment to continued dialogue facilitated by the US. This leads to a period of relative calm, but tensions remain high. **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) A joint statement from Trump and the leaders of Israel and Iran