Украина и Россия обмениваются огнем, поскольку союзники Зеленского поддерживают призыв к прямым переговорам

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Drone attacks escalate in intensity and frequency, targeting key infrastructure and military facilities. Russia responds with increased air strikes on Ukrainian cities, leading to civilian casualties and further escalation of tensions. The UK, France, and Germany push for a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, but negotiations fail due to conflicting demands and mistrust. * Increased reports of significant damage to critical infrastructure (e.g., power grids, communication networks) in Ukraine. * Russian military activity near the Ukrainian border increases significantly, including air and missile strikes. * Diplomatic channels between Russia and Ukraine remain stalled, with no progress on a ceasefire agreement. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict co

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Drone attacks escalate in intensity and frequency, targeting key infrastructure and military facilities. Russia responds with increased air strikes on Ukrainian cities, leading to civilian casualties and further escalation of tensions. The UK, France, and Germany push for a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, but negotiations fail due to conflicting demands and mistrust. * Increased reports of significant damage to critical infrastructure (e.g., power grids, communication networks) in Ukraine. * Russian military activity near the Ukrainian border increases significantly, including air and missile strikes. * Diplomatic channels between Russia and Ukraine remain stalled, with no progress on a ceasefire agreement. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict co

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Drone attacks escalate in intensity and frequency, targeting key infrastructure and military facilities. Russia responds with increased air strikes on Ukrainian cities, leading to civilian casualties and further escalation of tensions. The UK, France, and Germany push for a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, but negotiations fail due to conflicting demands and mistrust. * Increased reports of significant damage to critical infrastructure (e.g., power grids, communication networks) in Ukraine. * Russian military activity near the Ukrainian border increases significantly, including air and missile strikes. * Diplomatic channels between Russia and Ukraine remain stalled, with no progress on a ceasefire agreement. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict co