Израиль возобновляет удары по объектам "Хезболлы" на юге Ливана - СМИ

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's strikes escalate in intensity and frequency, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and personnel. This triggers retaliatory actions from Hezbollah, including increased rocket fire into Israel, potentially escalating to a larger-scale conflict. This escalation could occur within 7 days, with the potential for increased military casualties on both sides. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Confirmed reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting high-value Hezbollah assets in southern Lebanon, accompanied by increased activity from Hezbollah's resistance units. 2) Rise in reported rocket attacks from Hezbollah into Israel, potentially exceeding a 50% increase within the next 48 hours. * **Time horizon:** 7 days to 1 week **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The current conflict remains largely contained with li

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's strikes escalate in intensity and frequency, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and personnel. This triggers retaliatory actions from Hezbollah, including increased rocket fire into Israel, potentially escalating to a larger-scale conflict. This escalation could occur within 7 days, with the potential for increased military casualties on both sides. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Confirmed reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting high-value Hezbollah assets in southern Lebanon, accompanied by increased activity from Hezbollah's resistance units. 2) Rise in reported rocket attacks from Hezbollah into Israel, potentially exceeding a 50% increase within the next 48 hours. * **Time horizon:** 7 days to 1 week **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The current conflict remains largely contained with li

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's strikes escalate in intensity and frequency, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and personnel. This triggers retaliatory actions from Hezbollah, including increased rocket fire into Israel, potentially escalating to a larger-scale conflict. This escalation could occur within 7 days, with the potential for increased military casualties on both sides. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Confirmed reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting high-value Hezbollah assets in southern Lebanon, accompanied by increased activity from Hezbollah's resistance units. 2) Rise in reported rocket attacks from Hezbollah into Israel, potentially exceeding a 50% increase within the next 48 hours. * **Time horizon:** 7 days to 1 week **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The current conflict remains largely contained with li