Citadel Securities видит риск скорого повышения ставок ФРС

## Scenario Forecasts **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation leads to aggressive rate hikes in quick succession, exceeding market expectations. This triggers a sell-off in riskier assets globally as investors anticipate higher borrowing costs and economic slowdown. * **Confirmation indicators:** Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a 0.5% interest rate hike at the June meeting, followed by another 0.25% increase in July. Inflation data remains stubbornly high. * **Time horizon:** 1-3 months **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The Federal Reserve pauses its aggressive rate hikes after a series of smaller increases, opting for a measured approach to control inflation. This leads to market stabilization and continued growth in certain sectors, though overall economic activity remains sluggish. * **Confirm

## Scenario Forecasts **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation leads to aggressive rate hikes in quick succession, exceeding market expectations. This triggers a sell-off in riskier assets globally as investors anticipate higher borrowing costs and economic slowdown. * **Confirmation indicators:** Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a 0.5% interest rate hike at the June meeting, followed by another 0.25% increase in July. Inflation data remains stubbornly high. * **Time horizon:** 1-3 months **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The Federal Reserve pauses its aggressive rate hikes after a series of smaller increases, opting for a measured approach to control inflation. This leads to market stabilization and continued growth in certain sectors, though overall economic activity remains sluggish. * **Confirm

## Scenario Forecasts **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation leads to aggressive rate hikes in quick succession, exceeding market expectations. This triggers a sell-off in riskier assets globally as investors anticipate higher borrowing costs and economic slowdown. * **Confirmation indicators:** Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a 0.5% interest rate hike at the June meeting, followed by another 0.25% increase in July. Inflation data remains stubbornly high. * **Time horizon:** 1-3 months **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The Federal Reserve pauses its aggressive rate hikes after a series of smaller increases, opting for a measured approach to control inflation. This leads to market stabilization and continued growth in certain sectors, though overall economic activity remains sluggish. * **Confirm