Тегеран отверг обвинения в нанесении удара по саудовской военной авиабазе в Хардже
Тегеран отвергает обвинения в нанесении удара по саудовской военной авиабазе в Хардже. Иран опроверг сообщения о том, что он совершил нападение на авиабазу Аль-Хардж в Саудовской Аравии, а государственная телекомпания IRIB процитировала слова военного чиновника, заявившего, что «Иран не произвел ни одного выстрела» по этому объекту. Чиновник ответил на сообщения о взрыве на базе или рядом с ней. Опровержение последовало после того, как Гражданская оборона Саудовской Аравии опубликовала публичное предупреждение через свою систему экстренного оповещения для провинции Аль-Хардж, предупредив жителей о потенциальной опасности. Власти Саудовской Аравии публично не приписали произошедший инцидент какой-либо конкретной стороне.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Saudi Arabia escalates its response to the incident by deploying additional military forces near the border with Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation with missile strikes against unspecified targets in Saudi Arabia. This escalation could trigger a broader regional conflict, potentially involving other countries like Israel or the UAE. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Public statement from Saudi Arabian government outlining increased military presence and threat level; 2) Unidentified ballistic missile launches towards Saudi Arabia within 72 hours of the initial incident. * **Time horizon:** 7 days to 14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident remains a diplomatic issue, with both sides expressing concern and engaging in low-level communication through intermediaries. The Saudi Civil Defenc
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Saudi Arabia escalates its response to the incident by deploying additional military forces near the border with Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation with missile strikes against unspecified targets in Saudi Arabia. This escalation could trigger a broader regional conflict, potentially involving other countries like Israel or the UAE. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Public statement from Saudi Arabian government outlining increased military presence and threat level; 2) Unidentified ballistic missile launches towards Saudi Arabia within 72 hours of the initial incident. * **Time horizon:** 7 days to 14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident remains a diplomatic issue, with both sides expressing concern and engaging in low-level communication through intermediaries. The Saudi Civil Defenc
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Saudi Arabia escalates its response to the incident by deploying additional military forces near the border with Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation with missile strikes against unspecified targets in Saudi Arabia. This escalation could trigger a broader regional conflict, potentially involving other countries like Israel or the UAE. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Public statement from Saudi Arabian government outlining increased military presence and threat level; 2) Unidentified ballistic missile launches towards Saudi Arabia within 72 hours of the initial incident. * **Time horizon:** 7 days to 14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident remains a diplomatic issue, with both sides expressing concern and engaging in low-level communication through intermediaries. The Saudi Civil Defenc
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
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