Производственные заказы в Германии в апреле упали больше, чем ожидалось

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) - 50%** * **Chain:** German factory orders decline further, leading to increased economic uncertainty and political pressure on the EU. This leads to a surge in energy prices due to reduced supply from Russia. The escalation of tensions with Iran intensifies, resulting in potential sanctions against major European companies. * **Confirmation indicators:** A significant increase in German unemployment rate exceeding 5%, coupled with a sharp decline in the Eurozone's industrial production index. * **Time horizon:** 4-8 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38%** * **Chain:** The EU implements targeted sanctions on Iran, but these are not fully effective in halting the conflict. This leads to a temporary increase in energy prices due to supply chain disruptions and uncertainty. However, the overall impact remains relatively muted as other m

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) - 50%** * **Chain:** German factory orders decline further, leading to increased economic uncertainty and political pressure on the EU. This leads to a surge in energy prices due to reduced supply from Russia. The escalation of tensions with Iran intensifies, resulting in potential sanctions against major European companies. * **Confirmation indicators:** A significant increase in German unemployment rate exceeding 5%, coupled with a sharp decline in the Eurozone's industrial production index. * **Time horizon:** 4-8 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38%** * **Chain:** The EU implements targeted sanctions on Iran, but these are not fully effective in halting the conflict. This leads to a temporary increase in energy prices due to supply chain disruptions and uncertainty. However, the overall impact remains relatively muted as other m

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) - 50%** * **Chain:** German factory orders decline further, leading to increased economic uncertainty and political pressure on the EU. This leads to a surge in energy prices due to reduced supply from Russia. The escalation of tensions with Iran intensifies, resulting in potential sanctions against major European companies. * **Confirmation indicators:** A significant increase in German unemployment rate exceeding 5%, coupled with a sharp decline in the Eurozone's industrial production index. * **Time horizon:** 4-8 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38%** * **Chain:** The EU implements targeted sanctions on Iran, but these are not fully effective in halting the conflict. This leads to a temporary increase in energy prices due to supply chain disruptions and uncertainty. However, the overall impact remains relatively muted as other m