Германия и Франция отказались от совместного проекта истребителя

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Germany and France's joint fighter jet project failure triggers a renewed arms race in Europe. France initiates talks with other European nations to form a new defense alliance, potentially leading to increased military spending by countries like the UK and Italy. This could prompt Russia to increase its own military presence near NATO borders. - French President Macron publicly announces the formation of a new defense alliance within one month. - The Russian Ministry of Defense issues a statement outlining plans for increased military exercises in Eastern Europe. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The failure to reach an agreement on the joint fighter jet project leads to a temporary pause in European defense cooperation. However, existing partnerships continue, and co

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Germany and France's joint fighter jet project failure triggers a renewed arms race in Europe. France initiates talks with other European nations to form a new defense alliance, potentially leading to increased military spending by countries like the UK and Italy. This could prompt Russia to increase its own military presence near NATO borders. - French President Macron publicly announces the formation of a new defense alliance within one month. - The Russian Ministry of Defense issues a statement outlining plans for increased military exercises in Eastern Europe. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The failure to reach an agreement on the joint fighter jet project leads to a temporary pause in European defense cooperation. However, existing partnerships continue, and co

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Germany and France's joint fighter jet project failure triggers a renewed arms race in Europe. France initiates talks with other European nations to form a new defense alliance, potentially leading to increased military spending by countries like the UK and Italy. This could prompt Russia to increase its own military presence near NATO borders. - French President Macron publicly announces the formation of a new defense alliance within one month. - The Russian Ministry of Defense issues a statement outlining plans for increased military exercises in Eastern Europe. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The failure to reach an agreement on the joint fighter jet project leads to a temporary pause in European defense cooperation. However, existing partnerships continue, and co