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geopolitical··severity 6

По словам Ригглмана, Пулте «ужасно не соответствует требованиям» на должность директора разведки

Денвер Ригглман, бывший конгрессмен-республиканец от Вирджинии и генеральный директор RIIG Technology, присоединяется, чтобы обсудить последние новости Конгресса и поделился своими мыслями о продвижении Билла Пулта. По крайней мере семь демократов в Сенате должны будут проголосовать за повторное утверждение раздела 702, но они пригрозили заблокировать любое продление, если Белый дом не отзовет назначение Пулте. (Источник: Блумберг)

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Senate Democrats block Section 702 re-authorization without Pulte's removal. This leads to heightened political pressure on the White House, potentially resulting in a public confrontation between the administration and key Democratic senators. * **Confirmation indicators:** Public statements from prominent Democrats explicitly stating their opposition to Pulte’s appointment and a press conference where they outline specific demands for his resignation or withdrawal of nomination. * **Time horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The White House negotiates with key Senate Democrats, potentially offering concessions to secure their support for Pulte's appointment. This could involve a public statement acknowledging the concerns of these senators or a change in strategy regarding Section 7

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Public statements from prominent Democrats explicitly stating their opposition to Pulte’s appointment and a press conference where they outline specific demands for his resignation or withdrawal of nomination., * **Time horizon:** 1, 2 weeks
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Senate Democrats block Section 702 re-authorization without Pulte's removal. This leads to heightened political pressure on the White House, potentially resulting in a public confrontation between the administration and key Democratic senators. * **Confirmation indicators:** Public statements from prominent Democrats explicitly stating their opposition to Pulte’s appointment and a press conference where they outline specific demands for his resignation or withdrawal of nomination. * **Time horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The White House negotiates with key Senate Democrats, potentially offering concessions to secure their support for Pulte's appointment. This could involve a public statement acknowledging the concerns of these senators or a change in strategy regarding Section 7

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Public statements from prominent Democrats explicitly stating their opposition to Pulte’s appointment and a press conference where they outline specific demands for his resignation or withdrawal of nomination., * **Time horizon:** 1, 2 weeks
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Senate Democrats block Section 702 re-authorization without Pulte's removal. This leads to heightened political pressure on the White House, potentially resulting in a public confrontation between the administration and key Democratic senators. * **Confirmation indicators:** Public statements from prominent Democrats explicitly stating their opposition to Pulte’s appointment and a press conference where they outline specific demands for his resignation or withdrawal of nomination. * **Time horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The White House negotiates with key Senate Democrats, potentially offering concessions to secure their support for Pulte's appointment. This could involve a public statement acknowledging the concerns of these senators or a change in strategy regarding Section 7

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Public statements from prominent Democrats explicitly stating their opposition to Pulte’s appointment and a press conference where they outline specific demands for his resignation or withdrawal of nomination., * **Time horizon:** 1, 2 weeks

Первичный источник: Bloomberg Markets

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