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geopolitical··severity 6

Си Цзиньпин приземлился в Северной Корее, и денуклеаризация, скорее всего, не будет обсуждаться

Президент Китая Си Цзиньпин начал свой первый визит в Северную Корею с 2019 года, пообещав «непоколебимую» дружбу и более глубокие связи со страной, которая может похвастаться растущим ядерным арсеналом и расширяющимися связями с Россией. «Независимо от того, как меняются времена или как развивается международная ситуация, дружба между Китаем и Северной Кореей остается непобедимой», — заявил Си Цзиньпин в статье, опубликованной в понедельник государственной северокорейской газетой «Нодон Синмун». Обе страны должны «укрепить обмены на...

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Xi's visit to North Korea triggers increased military exercises in the region by both China and Russia. Tensions rise between South Korea and Japan, leading to heightened diplomatic tensions. North Korea tests a new long-range missile capable of reaching US territory, escalating concerns about nuclear proliferation. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Xi's visit to North Korea leads to increased diplomatic efforts between China and North Korea, with both sides focusing on economic cooperation and trade agreements. The two countries ag

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** China and Russia conduct joint naval drills near the Korean peninsula within two weeks of Xi's visit. North Korean state media publishes a statement threatening military action if South Korea or Japan attempt to intervene in its activities.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Xi's visit to North Korea triggers increased military exercises in the region by both China and Russia. Tensions rise between South Korea and Japan, leading to heightened diplomatic tensions. North Korea tests a new long-range missile capable of reaching US territory, escalating concerns about nuclear proliferation. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Xi's visit to North Korea leads to increased diplomatic efforts between China and North Korea, with both sides focusing on economic cooperation and trade agreements. The two countries ag

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** China and Russia conduct joint naval drills near the Korean peninsula within two weeks of Xi's visit. North Korean state media publishes a statement threatening military action if South Korea or Japan attempt to intervene in its activities.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Xi's visit to North Korea triggers increased military exercises in the region by both China and Russia. Tensions rise between South Korea and Japan, leading to heightened diplomatic tensions. North Korea tests a new long-range missile capable of reaching US territory, escalating concerns about nuclear proliferation. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Xi's visit to North Korea leads to increased diplomatic efforts between China and North Korea, with both sides focusing on economic cooperation and trade agreements. The two countries ag

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** China and Russia conduct joint naval drills near the Korean peninsula within two weeks of Xi's visit. North Korean state media publishes a statement threatening military action if South Korea or Japan attempt to intervene in its activities.

Первичный источник: South China Morning Post

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