Киев не скрывает своих растущих намерений наносить удары по мирному населению — эксперт

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Ukraine intensifies attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure (e.g., power grids, bridges) in response to escalating rhetoric from Moscow. This leads to retaliatory strikes by Russia against Ukrainian military targets and civilian areas. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased reports of targeted attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine, followed by official statements from both sides regarding escalation and potential for larger-scale conflict. * **Time horizon:** Within 10 days to two weeks, escalating tensions could lead to a more direct confrontation between the two countries. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Diplomatic efforts by international mediators continue, with both sides engaging in high-level discussions and negotiations to de-escalate the situation. The Ukrainian government maint

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Ukraine intensifies attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure (e.g., power grids, bridges) in response to escalating rhetoric from Moscow. This leads to retaliatory strikes by Russia against Ukrainian military targets and civilian areas. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased reports of targeted attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine, followed by official statements from both sides regarding escalation and potential for larger-scale conflict. * **Time horizon:** Within 10 days to two weeks, escalating tensions could lead to a more direct confrontation between the two countries. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Diplomatic efforts by international mediators continue, with both sides engaging in high-level discussions and negotiations to de-escalate the situation. The Ukrainian government maint

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Ukraine intensifies attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure (e.g., power grids, bridges) in response to escalating rhetoric from Moscow. This leads to retaliatory strikes by Russia against Ukrainian military targets and civilian areas. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased reports of targeted attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine, followed by official statements from both sides regarding escalation and potential for larger-scale conflict. * **Time horizon:** Within 10 days to two weeks, escalating tensions could lead to a more direct confrontation between the two countries. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Diplomatic efforts by international mediators continue, with both sides engaging in high-level discussions and negotiations to de-escalate the situation. The Ukrainian government maint