Премьер-министр Армении добился победы на выборах «с самой высокой явкой за десятилетие»

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Armenia's ruling party, fueled by Russian interference and heightened tensions with the EU, escalates its rhetoric against Armenia’s opposition. This leads to a series of escalating actions including sanctions on Armenian businesses and increased military presence in the region. The Kremlin uses this as leverage to demand concessions from the EU, potentially leading to further sanctions or even direct intervention. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Increased public statements by Russian officials threatening further action against Armenia's opposition; 2) Armenia’s parliament votes on a bill that aligns with Russia’s interests and is seen as hostile towards the West. * **Time Horizon:** 30-60 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Armenian government maintains its westward tilt, seeking to mainta

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Armenia's ruling party, fueled by Russian interference and heightened tensions with the EU, escalates its rhetoric against Armenia’s opposition. This leads to a series of escalating actions including sanctions on Armenian businesses and increased military presence in the region. The Kremlin uses this as leverage to demand concessions from the EU, potentially leading to further sanctions or even direct intervention. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Increased public statements by Russian officials threatening further action against Armenia's opposition; 2) Armenia’s parliament votes on a bill that aligns with Russia’s interests and is seen as hostile towards the West. * **Time Horizon:** 30-60 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Armenian government maintains its westward tilt, seeking to mainta

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Armenia's ruling party, fueled by Russian interference and heightened tensions with the EU, escalates its rhetoric against Armenia’s opposition. This leads to a series of escalating actions including sanctions on Armenian businesses and increased military presence in the region. The Kremlin uses this as leverage to demand concessions from the EU, potentially leading to further sanctions or even direct intervention. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) Increased public statements by Russian officials threatening further action against Armenia's opposition; 2) Armenia’s parliament votes on a bill that aligns with Russia’s interests and is seen as hostile towards the West. * **Time Horizon:** 30-60 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Armenian government maintains its westward tilt, seeking to mainta