Министры G7 стремятся к совместным действиям по удобрениям, поскольку война мешает поставкам

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** G7 ministers agree on joint sanctions against Middle Eastern fertilizer producers, escalating tensions further. This triggers an embargo on key fertilizers and a surge in global prices. * **Confirmation Indicators:** G7 releases joint statement outlining sanctions, followed by diplomatic pressure from European countries on major exporters of fertilizers. * **Time Horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** G7 ministers agree to provide financial assistance to farmers in vulnerable nations through existing aid programs and create a joint task force to address the fertilizer shortage. International organizations like the UN Food Security Alliance work on increasing production of alternative fertilizers. * **Confirmation Indicators:** G7 announces specific funding packages for agricultural

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** G7 ministers agree on joint sanctions against Middle Eastern fertilizer producers, escalating tensions further. This triggers an embargo on key fertilizers and a surge in global prices. * **Confirmation Indicators:** G7 releases joint statement outlining sanctions, followed by diplomatic pressure from European countries on major exporters of fertilizers. * **Time Horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** G7 ministers agree to provide financial assistance to farmers in vulnerable nations through existing aid programs and create a joint task force to address the fertilizer shortage. International organizations like the UN Food Security Alliance work on increasing production of alternative fertilizers. * **Confirmation Indicators:** G7 announces specific funding packages for agricultural

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** G7 ministers agree on joint sanctions against Middle Eastern fertilizer producers, escalating tensions further. This triggers an embargo on key fertilizers and a surge in global prices. * **Confirmation Indicators:** G7 releases joint statement outlining sanctions, followed by diplomatic pressure from European countries on major exporters of fertilizers. * **Time Horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** G7 ministers agree to provide financial assistance to farmers in vulnerable nations through existing aid programs and create a joint task force to address the fertilizer shortage. International organizations like the UN Food Security Alliance work on increasing production of alternative fertilizers. * **Confirmation Indicators:** G7 announces specific funding packages for agricultural