МАЙЯ: Янг: Настоящим победителем в походе ОПЕК+ является Россия
Цены на нефть выросли после новых боевых действий между Ираном и Израилем, которые поставили под угрозу хрупкое прекращение огня в регионе. Последняя эскалация возобновила обеспокоенность по поводу поставок энергоносителей и будущего потоков через Ормузский пролив. Карен Янг, старший научный сотрудник Центра глобальной энергетической политики в Колумбийском университете, побеседовала с Абиром Абу Омаром из Bloomberg о горизонтах Ближнего Востока и Африки о будущем пути группы ОПЕК+. (Источник: Блумберг)
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Escalation in Israel-Iran conflict leads to renewed sanctions on Iranian oil exports and further disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This triggers a surge in global oil prices, potentially exceeding $100/barrel within the next week. * **Confirmation Indicators:** * Continued reporting of military action between Iran and Israel, including increased targeting of critical infrastructure. * Confirmed breach of ceasefire agreement by either side. * Significant increase in global crude oil futures contracts trading volume. * **Time Horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The conflict between Israel and Iran remains contained, with both sides maintaining diplomatic channels to prevent escalation. The Strait of Hormuz sees minimal disruption in oil traffic, resu
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Escalation in Israel-Iran conflict leads to renewed sanctions on Iranian oil exports and further disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This triggers a surge in global oil prices, potentially exceeding $100/barrel within the next week. * **Confirmation Indicators:** * Continued reporting of military action between Iran and Israel, including increased targeting of critical infrastructure. * Confirmed breach of ceasefire agreement by either side. * Significant increase in global crude oil futures contracts trading volume. * **Time Horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The conflict between Israel and Iran remains contained, with both sides maintaining diplomatic channels to prevent escalation. The Strait of Hormuz sees minimal disruption in oil traffic, resu
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Escalation in Israel-Iran conflict leads to renewed sanctions on Iranian oil exports and further disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This triggers a surge in global oil prices, potentially exceeding $100/barrel within the next week. * **Confirmation Indicators:** * Continued reporting of military action between Iran and Israel, including increased targeting of critical infrastructure. * Confirmed breach of ceasefire agreement by either side. * Significant increase in global crude oil futures contracts trading volume. * **Time Horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The conflict between Israel and Iran remains contained, with both sides maintaining diplomatic channels to prevent escalation. The Strait of Hormuz sees minimal disruption in oil traffic, resu
Первичный источник: Bloomberg Markets
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