Израиль нанес ответные авиаудары по Ирану — прогноз цепочек

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel launches retaliatory air strikes on Iran, followed by increased military activity from both sides, including the deployment of additional troops and advanced weaponry. This escalates tensions in the region, potentially leading to a wider conflict involving regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The ceasefire established in May remains intact, with both sides maintaining a cautious approach to avoid further escalation. The focus shifts to diplomatic efforts and economic sanctions against Iran. **Confi

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Increased media reports of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran; 2) Confirmation of Iranian ballistic missile tests within a week following the initial strike.

B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel launches retaliatory air strikes on Iran, followed by increased military activity from both sides, including the deployment of additional troops and advanced weaponry. This escalates tensions in the region, potentially leading to a wider conflict involving regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The ceasefire established in May remains intact, with both sides maintaining a cautious approach to avoid further escalation. The focus shifts to diplomatic efforts and economic sanctions against Iran. **Confi

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Increased media reports of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran; 2) Confirmation of Iranian ballistic missile tests within a week following the initial strike.

C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel launches retaliatory air strikes on Iran, followed by increased military activity from both sides, including the deployment of additional troops and advanced weaponry. This escalates tensions in the region, potentially leading to a wider conflict involving regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The ceasefire established in May remains intact, with both sides maintaining a cautious approach to avoid further escalation. The focus shifts to diplomatic efforts and economic sanctions against Iran. **Confi

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Increased media reports of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran; 2) Confirmation of Iranian ballistic missile tests within a week following the initial strike.

Сценарии цепочки

Escalation

Status Quo

De-escalation