Война в Иране в прямом эфире: Трамп призывает к сдержанности после ракетного удара Ирана по Израилю

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Following Israel's attack on Beirut, Iran launches retaliatory missile strikes against Israeli targets. Tensions escalate further as both sides accuse each other of starting the conflict and threaten military action. The US deploys additional troops to the region as a show of force. This escalates regional tensions and increases the risk of direct conflict between Israel and Iran. * Confirmation of Iranian missile strikes against Israeli targets (within 24 hours) * Public statements from both sides threatening further action, including military escalation. * US deployment of additional troops to the region within 72 hours. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts between Israel and Iran, with both sides seeking to de-escalate tension

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Following Israel's attack on Beirut, Iran launches retaliatory missile strikes against Israeli targets. Tensions escalate further as both sides accuse each other of starting the conflict and threaten military action. The US deploys additional troops to the region as a show of force. This escalates regional tensions and increases the risk of direct conflict between Israel and Iran. * Confirmation of Iranian missile strikes against Israeli targets (within 24 hours) * Public statements from both sides threatening further action, including military escalation. * US deployment of additional troops to the region within 72 hours. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts between Israel and Iran, with both sides seeking to de-escalate tension

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Following Israel's attack on Beirut, Iran launches retaliatory missile strikes against Israeli targets. Tensions escalate further as both sides accuse each other of starting the conflict and threaten military action. The US deploys additional troops to the region as a show of force. This escalates regional tensions and increases the risk of direct conflict between Israel and Iran. * Confirmation of Iranian missile strikes against Israeli targets (within 24 hours) * Public statements from both sides threatening further action, including military escalation. * US deployment of additional troops to the region within 72 hours. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts between Israel and Iran, with both sides seeking to de-escalate tension