Война на Ближнем Востоке в прямом эфире: Израиль планирует нанести удар по Ирану «силой», как только ему дадут зеленый свет
Глава израильской армии генерал-лейтенант Эяль Замир пообещал в воскресенье, что военные нанесут «силовой удар» по Ирану после получения приказа после того, как Исламская Республика выпустила ракеты по Израилю. Тем временем Стражи исламской революции заявили, что атаковали штаб-квартиру «террористических группировок» в Иракском Курдистане. Следите за нашим живым блогом, чтобы быть в курсе последних обновлений.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis: Middle East War **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel launches pre-emptive airstrikes on Iranian military sites within 48 hours of receiving orders, escalating tensions to a full-scale conflict with potential involvement from regional powers. This triggers a rapid escalation in the form of retaliatory strikes by Iran and its allies against Israeli targets. * **Confirmation indicators:** Israel publicly announces the commencement of air strikes on Iranian targets, followed by confirmation from multiple independent sources about confirmed attacks on Iranian military sites. * **Time horizon:** 48 hours to 1 week **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Diplomatic efforts between Israel and Iran continue with the support of international mediators. Israel refrains from direct military action, while Iran maintains a cautious stance. The situa
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis: Middle East War **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel launches pre-emptive airstrikes on Iranian military sites within 48 hours of receiving orders, escalating tensions to a full-scale conflict with potential involvement from regional powers. This triggers a rapid escalation in the form of retaliatory strikes by Iran and its allies against Israeli targets. * **Confirmation indicators:** Israel publicly announces the commencement of air strikes on Iranian targets, followed by confirmation from multiple independent sources about confirmed attacks on Iranian military sites. * **Time horizon:** 48 hours to 1 week **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Diplomatic efforts between Israel and Iran continue with the support of international mediators. Israel refrains from direct military action, while Iran maintains a cautious stance. The situa
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis: Middle East War **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel launches pre-emptive airstrikes on Iranian military sites within 48 hours of receiving orders, escalating tensions to a full-scale conflict with potential involvement from regional powers. This triggers a rapid escalation in the form of retaliatory strikes by Iran and its allies against Israeli targets. * **Confirmation indicators:** Israel publicly announces the commencement of air strikes on Iranian targets, followed by confirmation from multiple independent sources about confirmed attacks on Iranian military sites. * **Time horizon:** 48 hours to 1 week **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Diplomatic efforts between Israel and Iran continue with the support of international mediators. Israel refrains from direct military action, while Iran maintains a cautious stance. The situa
Первичный источник: France24
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