Израиль нанес удар по городу на западе Ирана – власти — прогноз цепочек

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel's strike on Hamadan Province triggers retaliatory strikes from Iran, escalating tensions in the region. Iran targets Israeli military installations in retaliation within 72 hours, potentially leading to a regional arms race. This could further escalate into proxy conflicts involving other countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident remains a localized event with limited international impact. Iran condemns the attack but refrains from retaliatory action, focusing on internal affairs and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions. Israel maintains its position

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran, public statements of threats from both sides, and potential escalation of cyberattacks or drone strikes.

B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel's strike on Hamadan Province triggers retaliatory strikes from Iran, escalating tensions in the region. Iran targets Israeli military installations in retaliation within 72 hours, potentially leading to a regional arms race. This could further escalate into proxy conflicts involving other countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident remains a localized event with limited international impact. Iran condemns the attack but refrains from retaliatory action, focusing on internal affairs and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions. Israel maintains its position

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran, public statements of threats from both sides, and potential escalation of cyberattacks or drone strikes.

C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel's strike on Hamadan Province triggers retaliatory strikes from Iran, escalating tensions in the region. Iran targets Israeli military installations in retaliation within 72 hours, potentially leading to a regional arms race. This could further escalate into proxy conflicts involving other countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The incident remains a localized event with limited international impact. Iran condemns the attack but refrains from retaliatory action, focusing on internal affairs and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions. Israel maintains its position

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran, public statements of threats from both sides, and potential escalation of cyberattacks or drone strikes.

Сценарии цепочки

Escalation

Status Quo

De-escalation