В результате авиаудара израильских военных в центре сектора Газа убиты трое палестинских террористов «Исламского джихада»

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel's airstrike triggers retaliatory fire from Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Hamas joins the conflict, potentially launching rockets into Israel. Increased tensions escalate to a larger-scale military response with potential for cross-border clashes and increased civilian casualties. This could lead to a broader regional conflict involving Egypt, Turkey, and other countries. * Hamas launches significant number of rockets into Israel within 24 hours of the initial airstrike. * Increased Israeli air strikes targeting Gaza infrastructure and military installations. * Reports of increased violence between Palestinian factions in Gaza. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict remains limited to targeted airstrikes and retaliatory fire from both sides, with no

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel's airstrike triggers retaliatory fire from Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Hamas joins the conflict, potentially launching rockets into Israel. Increased tensions escalate to a larger-scale military response with potential for cross-border clashes and increased civilian casualties. This could lead to a broader regional conflict involving Egypt, Turkey, and other countries. * Hamas launches significant number of rockets into Israel within 24 hours of the initial airstrike. * Increased Israeli air strikes targeting Gaza infrastructure and military installations. * Reports of increased violence between Palestinian factions in Gaza. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict remains limited to targeted airstrikes and retaliatory fire from both sides, with no

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel's airstrike triggers retaliatory fire from Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Hamas joins the conflict, potentially launching rockets into Israel. Increased tensions escalate to a larger-scale military response with potential for cross-border clashes and increased civilian casualties. This could lead to a broader regional conflict involving Egypt, Turkey, and other countries. * Hamas launches significant number of rockets into Israel within 24 hours of the initial airstrike. * Increased Israeli air strikes targeting Gaza infrastructure and military installations. * Reports of increased violence between Palestinian factions in Gaza. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict remains limited to targeted airstrikes and retaliatory fire from both sides, with no