Цены на нефть растут после ударов по Израилю, проверяющих режим прекращения огня

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran increases military presence in Lebanon, Israel retaliates with air strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure. Tensions rise between Israel and Iran as both sides threaten further escalation. This escalates into a broader Middle East conflict involving regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Limited diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Iran. The ceasefire holds, but with heightened security measures by both sides. Global markets remain volatile, with oil prices fluctuating due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran increases military presence in Lebanon, Israel retaliates with air strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure. Tensions rise between Israel and Iran as both sides threaten further escalation. This escalates into a broader Middle East conflict involving regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Limited diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Iran. The ceasefire holds, but with heightened security measures by both sides. Global markets remain volatile, with oil prices fluctuating due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran increases military presence in Lebanon, Israel retaliates with air strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure. Tensions rise between Israel and Iran as both sides threaten further escalation. This escalates into a broader Middle East conflict involving regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Limited diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Iran. The ceasefire holds, but with heightened security measures by both sides. Global markets remain volatile, with oil prices fluctuating due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.