Си Цзиньпин прибыл в Северную Корею, чтобы встретиться с Кимом на фоне пристального внимания к наращиванию ядерного потенциала

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Xi's visit to North Korea triggers heightened tensions between China and the US, leading to increased military exercises in the Pacific region. This escalates diplomatic pressure on North Korea, potentially resulting in joint military drills with South Korea and Japan. **Confirmation indicators:** A public statement from a high-ranking Chinese official expressing strong disapproval of US actions towards North Korea followed by confirmation of joint military exercises in the Pacific region. **Time horizon:** 10 to 20 days. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Xi's visit is met with cautious diplomacy, with both China and North Korea emphasizing a commitment to dialogue and denuclearization. This leads to increased diplomatic engagement between the US and North Korea, focusing on economic sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable nuc

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Xi's visit to North Korea triggers heightened tensions between China and the US, leading to increased military exercises in the Pacific region. This escalates diplomatic pressure on North Korea, potentially resulting in joint military drills with South Korea and Japan. **Confirmation indicators:** A public statement from a high-ranking Chinese official expressing strong disapproval of US actions towards North Korea followed by confirmation of joint military exercises in the Pacific region. **Time horizon:** 10 to 20 days. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Xi's visit is met with cautious diplomacy, with both China and North Korea emphasizing a commitment to dialogue and denuclearization. This leads to increased diplomatic engagement between the US and North Korea, focusing on economic sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable nuc

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Xi's visit to North Korea triggers heightened tensions between China and the US, leading to increased military exercises in the Pacific region. This escalates diplomatic pressure on North Korea, potentially resulting in joint military drills with South Korea and Japan. **Confirmation indicators:** A public statement from a high-ranking Chinese official expressing strong disapproval of US actions towards North Korea followed by confirmation of joint military exercises in the Pacific region. **Time horizon:** 10 to 20 days. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Xi's visit is met with cautious diplomacy, with both China and North Korea emphasizing a commitment to dialogue and denuclearization. This leads to increased diplomatic engagement between the US and North Korea, focusing on economic sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable nuc