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## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Tensions escalate between major powers in the coming weeks due to misinterpretations of diplomatic messages and renewed military exercises near disputed territories. This leads to increased geopolitical risk premiums, impacting global markets and investor sentiment. * **Confirmation indicators:** A public statement from a high-level official in one of the involved countries expressing strong dissatisfaction with the other country's actions. A significant spike in military activity near the disputed territory as a show of force. * **Time horizon:** 14 to 28 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The current geopolitical tensions remain largely unresolved, with both sides engaging in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate. However, the risk of renewed conflict remains high, leading to continued volatility

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Tensions escalate between major powers in the coming weeks due to misinterpretations of diplomatic messages and renewed military exercises near disputed territories. This leads to increased geopolitical risk premiums, impacting global markets and investor sentiment. * **Confirmation indicators:** A public statement from a high-level official in one of the involved countries expressing strong dissatisfaction with the other country's actions. A significant spike in military activity near the disputed territory as a show of force. * **Time horizon:** 14 to 28 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The current geopolitical tensions remain largely unresolved, with both sides engaging in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate. However, the risk of renewed conflict remains high, leading to continued volatility

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Tensions escalate between major powers in the coming weeks due to misinterpretations of diplomatic messages and renewed military exercises near disputed territories. This leads to increased geopolitical risk premiums, impacting global markets and investor sentiment. * **Confirmation indicators:** A public statement from a high-level official in one of the involved countries expressing strong dissatisfaction with the other country's actions. A significant spike in military activity near the disputed territory as a show of force. * **Time horizon:** 14 to 28 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The current geopolitical tensions remain largely unresolved, with both sides engaging in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate. However, the risk of renewed conflict remains high, leading to continued volatility