Иран и Израиль обмениваются ракетными ударами, ставя под угрозу мирные переговоры

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel and Iran exchange further missile strikes, escalating into broader military conflict involving regional allies. Increased tensions could lead to direct air-to-air combat or a ground invasion by either side. This escalation could trigger international sanctions on both nations, potentially impacting global energy markets and financial stability. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current tensions between Israel and Iran remain unresolved. Both nations continue diplomatic efforts with limited progress. The situation remains fragile, potentially leading to further escalation or a renewed cycle of violence in the long

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel and Iran exchange further missile strikes, escalating into broader military conflict involving regional allies. Increased tensions could lead to direct air-to-air combat or a ground invasion by either side. This escalation could trigger international sanctions on both nations, potentially impacting global energy markets and financial stability. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current tensions between Israel and Iran remain unresolved. Both nations continue diplomatic efforts with limited progress. The situation remains fragile, potentially leading to further escalation or a renewed cycle of violence in the long

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel and Iran exchange further missile strikes, escalating into broader military conflict involving regional allies. Increased tensions could lead to direct air-to-air combat or a ground invasion by either side. This escalation could trigger international sanctions on both nations, potentially impacting global energy markets and financial stability. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current tensions between Israel and Iran remain unresolved. Both nations continue diplomatic efforts with limited progress. The situation remains fragile, potentially leading to further escalation or a renewed cycle of violence in the long