Торговые забастовки Израиля и Ирана угрожают втянуть регион обратно в полномасштабную войну

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel and Iran launch further strikes, escalating from initial attacks to larger-scale engagements targeting infrastructure and military installations. This triggers regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE to increase support for Israel, potentially leading to a wider conflict involving Hezbollah in Lebanon. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict remains contained to a limited exchange of attacks, primarily focused on military targets with minimal civilian casualties. International pressure from the UN and other global powers leads to diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation through dialogue

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel and Iran launch further strikes, escalating from initial attacks to larger-scale engagements targeting infrastructure and military installations. This triggers regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE to increase support for Israel, potentially leading to a wider conflict involving Hezbollah in Lebanon. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict remains contained to a limited exchange of attacks, primarily focused on military targets with minimal civilian casualties. International pressure from the UN and other global powers leads to diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation through dialogue

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel and Iran launch further strikes, escalating from initial attacks to larger-scale engagements targeting infrastructure and military installations. This triggers regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE to increase support for Israel, potentially leading to a wider conflict involving Hezbollah in Lebanon. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict remains contained to a limited exchange of attacks, primarily focused on military targets with minimal civilian casualties. International pressure from the UN and other global powers leads to diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation through dialogue