Эбола и джихадисты угрожают старейшему национальному парку Африки

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Virunga National Park rangers face increasing attacks from Isis-affiliated militants, leading to escalating violence and loss of life. This triggers increased international pressure on governments to intervene militarily, potentially escalating into a larger regional conflict. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased media coverage of violent clashes within the park and heightened tensions between Congolese authorities and international peacekeeping forces. **Time Horizon:** 10-20 days ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Virunga National Park rangers continue to face challenges from Isis-affiliated militants, but with limited success in preventing attacks. The situation remains tense, but the park's security is maintained through a combination of local and international efforts. **Confirmation indicators:** Continued reports of milita

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Virunga National Park rangers face increasing attacks from Isis-affiliated militants, leading to escalating violence and loss of life. This triggers increased international pressure on governments to intervene militarily, potentially escalating into a larger regional conflict. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased media coverage of violent clashes within the park and heightened tensions between Congolese authorities and international peacekeeping forces. **Time Horizon:** 10-20 days ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Virunga National Park rangers continue to face challenges from Isis-affiliated militants, but with limited success in preventing attacks. The situation remains tense, but the park's security is maintained through a combination of local and international efforts. **Confirmation indicators:** Continued reports of milita

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Virunga National Park rangers face increasing attacks from Isis-affiliated militants, leading to escalating violence and loss of life. This triggers increased international pressure on governments to intervene militarily, potentially escalating into a larger regional conflict. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased media coverage of violent clashes within the park and heightened tensions between Congolese authorities and international peacekeeping forces. **Time Horizon:** 10-20 days ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Virunga National Park rangers continue to face challenges from Isis-affiliated militants, but with limited success in preventing attacks. The situation remains tense, but the park's security is maintained through a combination of local and international efforts. **Confirmation indicators:** Continued reports of milita