Китайские гиганты солнечных батарей истекают кровью из-за переизбытка предложения и ценовой войны

## Scenario Forecasts ### Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** China's solar panel giants announce price cuts to compete in the global market, triggering retaliatory price wars among other manufacturers. This leads to a decline in demand for raw materials like silicon and polysilicon as production levels drop. The situation escalates further with trade tensions between China and major solar panel importers (e.g., US) increasing. * Announcement of aggressive price cuts by Chinese giants exceeding market expectations. * Reports of retaliatory price wars among other manufacturers in the global market. * Increased rhetoric from governments regarding trade disputes with China. ### Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Chinese solar panel giants and international competitors continue to compete on price, but

## Scenario Forecasts ### Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** China's solar panel giants announce price cuts to compete in the global market, triggering retaliatory price wars among other manufacturers. This leads to a decline in demand for raw materials like silicon and polysilicon as production levels drop. The situation escalates further with trade tensions between China and major solar panel importers (e.g., US) increasing. * Announcement of aggressive price cuts by Chinese giants exceeding market expectations. * Reports of retaliatory price wars among other manufacturers in the global market. * Increased rhetoric from governments regarding trade disputes with China. ### Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Chinese solar panel giants and international competitors continue to compete on price, but

## Scenario Forecasts ### Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** China's solar panel giants announce price cuts to compete in the global market, triggering retaliatory price wars among other manufacturers. This leads to a decline in demand for raw materials like silicon and polysilicon as production levels drop. The situation escalates further with trade tensions between China and major solar panel importers (e.g., US) increasing. * Announcement of aggressive price cuts by Chinese giants exceeding market expectations. * Reports of retaliatory price wars among other manufacturers in the global market. * Increased rhetoric from governments regarding trade disputes with China. ### Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Chinese solar panel giants and international competitors continue to compete on price, but