ЕЦБ рискует повторить ошибку 2011 года с повышением ставок, предупреждают экономисты

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** ECB's hawkish stance on inflation leads to increased market volatility and a sharp sell-off in Eurozone bonds. This triggers concerns about a potential economic recession, leading to a further increase in bond yields and tightening of financial conditions. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The ECB maintains its current stance of gradual interest rate increases, aiming for a balanced approach between controlling inflation and fostering economic growth. This results in a continued period of moderate market volatility with limited significant shifts in asset prices.

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** ECB's hawkish stance on inflation leads to increased market volatility and a sharp sell-off in Eurozone bonds. This triggers concerns about a potential economic recession, leading to a further increase in bond yields and tightening of financial conditions. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The ECB maintains its current stance of gradual interest rate increases, aiming for a balanced approach between controlling inflation and fostering economic growth. This results in a continued period of moderate market volatility with limited significant shifts in asset prices.

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** ECB's hawkish stance on inflation leads to increased market volatility and a sharp sell-off in Eurozone bonds. This triggers concerns about a potential economic recession, leading to a further increase in bond yields and tightening of financial conditions. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The ECB maintains its current stance of gradual interest rate increases, aiming for a balanced approach between controlling inflation and fostering economic growth. This results in a continued period of moderate market volatility with limited significant shifts in asset prices.