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geopolitical··severity 6

Чипы, корабли и оружие: Южная Корея бурно развивается на гонке ИИ и глобальном конфликте

Четвертая по величине экономика Азии находится в выигрышном положении, поскольку ее крупнейшие компании извлекают выгоду из геополитических тенденций.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** South Korean AI advancements lead to increased military spending and development of autonomous systems. Tensions escalate with China over territorial disputes in the East Sea, leading to increased naval activity and potential for limited armed conflict. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** South Korea maintains its focus on economic growth, leveraging AI advancements in sectors like manufacturing and logistics. Global geopolitical tensions remain high, but are managed through diplomatic channels and trade agreements.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased public rhetoric from both South Korea and China regarding military capabilities; joint military exercises between US and South Korean forces near disputed areas; diplomatic tensions between South Korea and China reach a breaking point.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** South Korean AI advancements lead to increased military spending and development of autonomous systems. Tensions escalate with China over territorial disputes in the East Sea, leading to increased naval activity and potential for limited armed conflict. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** South Korea maintains its focus on economic growth, leveraging AI advancements in sectors like manufacturing and logistics. Global geopolitical tensions remain high, but are managed through diplomatic channels and trade agreements.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased public rhetoric from both South Korea and China regarding military capabilities; joint military exercises between US and South Korean forces near disputed areas; diplomatic tensions between South Korea and China reach a breaking point.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** South Korean AI advancements lead to increased military spending and development of autonomous systems. Tensions escalate with China over territorial disputes in the East Sea, leading to increased naval activity and potential for limited armed conflict. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** South Korea maintains its focus on economic growth, leveraging AI advancements in sectors like manufacturing and logistics. Global geopolitical tensions remain high, but are managed through diplomatic channels and trade agreements.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased public rhetoric from both South Korea and China regarding military capabilities; joint military exercises between US and South Korean forces near disputed areas; diplomatic tensions between South Korea and China reach a breaking point.

Первичный источник: FT World

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