Иран прекращает нападения на Израиль на фоне напряженности | Новостное радио ВУД 1300 и 106 . 9 ФМ

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's halt on attacks on Israel triggers a retaliatory strike by Israeli forces against Iranian targets in Syria or Lebanon, escalating tensions further. This action could trigger increased military spending and diplomatic pressure from the US and its allies, potentially leading to sanctions and a heightened risk of direct conflict. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased activity by Israeli military aircraft near Iranian borders within 24 hours, followed by statements from Israeli officials confirming retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets in Syria or Lebanon. * **Time Horizon:** Escalation could occur within 7 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Baseline:** The current tension between Israel and Iran remains largely unchanged, with a continued focus on diplomatic channels to address the conflict. This

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's halt on attacks on Israel triggers a retaliatory strike by Israeli forces against Iranian targets in Syria or Lebanon, escalating tensions further. This action could trigger increased military spending and diplomatic pressure from the US and its allies, potentially leading to sanctions and a heightened risk of direct conflict. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased activity by Israeli military aircraft near Iranian borders within 24 hours, followed by statements from Israeli officials confirming retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets in Syria or Lebanon. * **Time Horizon:** Escalation could occur within 7 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Baseline:** The current tension between Israel and Iran remains largely unchanged, with a continued focus on diplomatic channels to address the conflict. This

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's halt on attacks on Israel triggers a retaliatory strike by Israeli forces against Iranian targets in Syria or Lebanon, escalating tensions further. This action could trigger increased military spending and diplomatic pressure from the US and its allies, potentially leading to sanctions and a heightened risk of direct conflict. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased activity by Israeli military aircraft near Iranian borders within 24 hours, followed by statements from Israeli officials confirming retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets in Syria or Lebanon. * **Time Horizon:** Escalation could occur within 7 days. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Baseline:** The current tension between Israel and Iran remains largely unchanged, with a continued focus on diplomatic channels to address the conflict. This