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geopolitical··severity 6

Meta подаст в суд на израильскую компанию-шпиона NSO

WhatsApp пресек попытки фишинга, связанные с NSO, занесенным в черный список США по соображениям безопасности.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Meta's legal action against NSO triggers international pressure on Israel to address security concerns. The US imposes further sanctions on NSO, potentially impacting its global operations and supply chains. This could lead to increased tensions between Israel and other countries that rely on NSO technology. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Meta and NSO continue their dispute, but without further escalation. The two entities engage in a series of negotiations to resolve their differences through legal channels. This could involve public statements from both sides expressing willingness for compromise. *

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Public statements from the Israeli government expressing resistance to Meta's legal action; 2) A formal announcement of US sanctions against NSO by the State Department.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Meta's legal action against NSO triggers international pressure on Israel to address security concerns. The US imposes further sanctions on NSO, potentially impacting its global operations and supply chains. This could lead to increased tensions between Israel and other countries that rely on NSO technology. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Meta and NSO continue their dispute, but without further escalation. The two entities engage in a series of negotiations to resolve their differences through legal channels. This could involve public statements from both sides expressing willingness for compromise. *

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Public statements from the Israeli government expressing resistance to Meta's legal action; 2) A formal announcement of US sanctions against NSO by the State Department.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Meta's legal action against NSO triggers international pressure on Israel to address security concerns. The US imposes further sanctions on NSO, potentially impacting its global operations and supply chains. This could lead to increased tensions between Israel and other countries that rely on NSO technology. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Meta and NSO continue their dispute, but without further escalation. The two entities engage in a series of negotiations to resolve their differences through legal channels. This could involve public statements from both sides expressing willingness for compromise. *

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Public statements from the Israeli government expressing resistance to Meta's legal action; 2) A formal announcement of US sanctions against NSO by the State Department.

Первичный источник: Al Jazeera

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