Пашинян угрожал оппозиции во время предвыборной кампании — отчет ОБСЕ

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Pashinyan's rhetoric during his campaign could escalate into direct political confrontation with opposition parties, potentially leading to clashes in parliament or street protests. This escalation might occur within **1-2 weeks**, resulting in a significant increase in tensions and potential for instability. * **Immediate:** Pashinyan publicly calls for the opposition's boycott of parliamentary proceedings. * **Short-term:** Reports of violence or threats between opposing political factions emerge. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The status quo will likely prevail, with the opposition parties continuing their campaign strategies while maintaining a measured distance from Pashinyan's rhetoric. This could lead to a **stable political landscape** in the coming wee

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Pashinyan's rhetoric during his campaign could escalate into direct political confrontation with opposition parties, potentially leading to clashes in parliament or street protests. This escalation might occur within **1-2 weeks**, resulting in a significant increase in tensions and potential for instability. * **Immediate:** Pashinyan publicly calls for the opposition's boycott of parliamentary proceedings. * **Short-term:** Reports of violence or threats between opposing political factions emerge. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The status quo will likely prevail, with the opposition parties continuing their campaign strategies while maintaining a measured distance from Pashinyan's rhetoric. This could lead to a **stable political landscape** in the coming wee

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Pashinyan's rhetoric during his campaign could escalate into direct political confrontation with opposition parties, potentially leading to clashes in parliament or street protests. This escalation might occur within **1-2 weeks**, resulting in a significant increase in tensions and potential for instability. * **Immediate:** Pashinyan publicly calls for the opposition's boycott of parliamentary proceedings. * **Short-term:** Reports of violence or threats between opposing political factions emerge. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The status quo will likely prevail, with the opposition parties continuing their campaign strategies while maintaining a measured distance from Pashinyan's rhetoric. This could lead to a **stable political landscape** in the coming wee