Си Цзиньпин приземлился в Северной Корее для встречи с Кимом

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Xi's visit to Pyongyang triggers increased North Korean nuclear testing activity within the next 14 days. This escalation could involve a demonstration of new long-range missiles and an increase in rhetoric about preemptive strikes against US forces. * **Confirmation indicators:** North Korea conducts a successful test launch of a ballistic missile capable of reaching US territory within 14 days, followed by increased public statements from North Korean officials regarding nuclear capabilities. * **Time horizon:** 14-21 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Xi's visit to Pyongyang results in a temporary pause on heightened rhetoric and missile testing. Both China and North Korea will likely engage in diplomatic efforts to maintain the current fragile balance of power, focusing on economic cooperation a

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Xi's visit to Pyongyang triggers increased North Korean nuclear testing activity within the next 14 days. This escalation could involve a demonstration of new long-range missiles and an increase in rhetoric about preemptive strikes against US forces. * **Confirmation indicators:** North Korea conducts a successful test launch of a ballistic missile capable of reaching US territory within 14 days, followed by increased public statements from North Korean officials regarding nuclear capabilities. * **Time horizon:** 14-21 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Xi's visit to Pyongyang results in a temporary pause on heightened rhetoric and missile testing. Both China and North Korea will likely engage in diplomatic efforts to maintain the current fragile balance of power, focusing on economic cooperation a

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Xi's visit to Pyongyang triggers increased North Korean nuclear testing activity within the next 14 days. This escalation could involve a demonstration of new long-range missiles and an increase in rhetoric about preemptive strikes against US forces. * **Confirmation indicators:** North Korea conducts a successful test launch of a ballistic missile capable of reaching US territory within 14 days, followed by increased public statements from North Korean officials regarding nuclear capabilities. * **Time horizon:** 14-21 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** Xi's visit to Pyongyang results in a temporary pause on heightened rhetoric and missile testing. Both China and North Korea will likely engage in diplomatic efforts to maintain the current fragile balance of power, focusing on economic cooperation a