Взрывы прозвучали в центре Тегерана во время обмена авиаударами Израиля и Ирана

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel launches further retaliatory air strikes against Iranian military targets in response to the initial barrage on their soil. Iran responds with increased missile attacks targeting Israeli infrastructure and potentially civilian areas, escalating tensions beyond a simple exchange of blows. This triggers a regional arms race as neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE increase military preparedness. * Israel announces further strikes on Iranian targets within 24-72 hours. * Iran's Revolutionary Guard releases a statement threatening "retaliatory measures" against Israeli cities within the next 72 hours. * Increased activity from regional militaries, including increased patrols and military exercises in the Gulf region. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chai

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel launches further retaliatory air strikes against Iranian military targets in response to the initial barrage on their soil. Iran responds with increased missile attacks targeting Israeli infrastructure and potentially civilian areas, escalating tensions beyond a simple exchange of blows. This triggers a regional arms race as neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE increase military preparedness. * Israel announces further strikes on Iranian targets within 24-72 hours. * Iran's Revolutionary Guard releases a statement threatening "retaliatory measures" against Israeli cities within the next 72 hours. * Increased activity from regional militaries, including increased patrols and military exercises in the Gulf region. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chai

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel launches further retaliatory air strikes against Iranian military targets in response to the initial barrage on their soil. Iran responds with increased missile attacks targeting Israeli infrastructure and potentially civilian areas, escalating tensions beyond a simple exchange of blows. This triggers a regional arms race as neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE increase military preparedness. * Israel announces further strikes on Iranian targets within 24-72 hours. * Iran's Revolutionary Guard releases a statement threatening "retaliatory measures" against Israeli cities within the next 72 hours. * Increased activity from regional militaries, including increased patrols and military exercises in the Gulf region. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chai