Иранцы измотаны перспективой новых войн с Израилем
Жители Тегерана проснулись в понедельник встревоженные и опустошенные перспективой возобновления полномасштабной войны после ответных ударов между заклятыми врагами Ираном и Израилем, которые на данный момент представляют собой самую большую угрозу хрупкому прекращению огня. «Мы не знаем, будет ли война и продлится ли мирное соглашение», — сказала Марьям, 41-летний бухгалтер, работающая на центральной площади Тегерана Валиаср. Она описала всепроникающее «чувство неуверенности и замешательства» после израильских ударов по Тегерану в воскресенье, которые произошли в...
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's continued targeting of Iranian infrastructure leads to Iran retaliating with increased strikes on Israeli civilian targets, escalating beyond initial skirmishes. This triggers a wider regional conflict involving proxy groups and potentially neighboring countries. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased tensions between Israel and Iran, public statements from both sides indicating a willingness to escalate, and an increase in military drills by Iranian proxies. * **Time horizon:** Within 10-14 days, the situation could rapidly escalate into full-scale conflict. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The current tensions remain unresolved, with both sides maintaining a cautious approach to avoid further escalation. Diplomatic efforts continue, but progress remains slow and uncertain. * **Confirmatio
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's continued targeting of Iranian infrastructure leads to Iran retaliating with increased strikes on Israeli civilian targets, escalating beyond initial skirmishes. This triggers a wider regional conflict involving proxy groups and potentially neighboring countries. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased tensions between Israel and Iran, public statements from both sides indicating a willingness to escalate, and an increase in military drills by Iranian proxies. * **Time horizon:** Within 10-14 days, the situation could rapidly escalate into full-scale conflict. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The current tensions remain unresolved, with both sides maintaining a cautious approach to avoid further escalation. Diplomatic efforts continue, but progress remains slow and uncertain. * **Confirmatio
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's continued targeting of Iranian infrastructure leads to Iran retaliating with increased strikes on Israeli civilian targets, escalating beyond initial skirmishes. This triggers a wider regional conflict involving proxy groups and potentially neighboring countries. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased tensions between Israel and Iran, public statements from both sides indicating a willingness to escalate, and an increase in military drills by Iranian proxies. * **Time horizon:** Within 10-14 days, the situation could rapidly escalate into full-scale conflict. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The current tensions remain unresolved, with both sides maintaining a cautious approach to avoid further escalation. Diplomatic efforts continue, but progress remains slow and uncertain. * **Confirmatio
Первичный источник: South China Morning Post
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