В результате атак Израиля на Иран пострадали 15 человек

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% What → US Congress passes resolution condemning Iran's nuclear program in 10 days → increased sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Confirmation indicators: - Iran's president threatens retaliation against the US - Oil prices rise by 5% within a week Time horizon: 14 to 21 days ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: Diplomatic talks between the US and Iran resume in 7 days, leading to a mutual agreement on nuclear disarmament. Confirmation indicators: - High-level officials from both countries hold secret meetings - Iranian Foreign Minister visits Washington D.C. for talks Time horizon: 8 to 14 days ## Scenario C (De-escalation) — 12% What → EU announces new economic aid package for Iran in 5 days, aiming to reduce tensions. Confirmation indicators: - European Commission President meets with Iranian President on phone - Iran's parliament votes

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% What → US Congress passes resolution condemning Iran's nuclear program in 10 days → increased sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Confirmation indicators: - Iran's president threatens retaliation against the US - Oil prices rise by 5% within a week Time horizon: 14 to 21 days ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: Diplomatic talks between the US and Iran resume in 7 days, leading to a mutual agreement on nuclear disarmament. Confirmation indicators: - High-level officials from both countries hold secret meetings - Iranian Foreign Minister visits Washington D.C. for talks Time horizon: 8 to 14 days ## Scenario C (De-escalation) — 12% What → EU announces new economic aid package for Iran in 5 days, aiming to reduce tensions. Confirmation indicators: - European Commission President meets with Iranian President on phone - Iran's parliament votes

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% What → US Congress passes resolution condemning Iran's nuclear program in 10 days → increased sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Confirmation indicators: - Iran's president threatens retaliation against the US - Oil prices rise by 5% within a week Time horizon: 14 to 21 days ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline scenario: Diplomatic talks between the US and Iran resume in 7 days, leading to a mutual agreement on nuclear disarmament. Confirmation indicators: - High-level officials from both countries hold secret meetings - Iranian Foreign Minister visits Washington D.C. for talks Time horizon: 8 to 14 days ## Scenario C (De-escalation) — 12% What → EU announces new economic aid package for Iran in 5 days, aiming to reduce tensions. Confirmation indicators: - European Commission President meets with Iranian President on phone - Iran's parliament votes