Израиль наносит новые авиаудары по Ирану, несмотря на призыв Трампа к сдержанности

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel launches fresh airstrikes on Iran, escalating tensions in the region. Iran retaliates with missile strikes against Israeli targets within 48 hours. This triggers a defensive response from Israel and potential US-led coalition intervention within 72 hours. The conflict could spread to regional allies like Hezbollah and Hamas, leading to heightened regional instability and increased geopolitical risk for global markets. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict between Israel and Iran remains unresolved with both s

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel launches fresh airstrikes on Iran, escalating tensions in the region. Iran retaliates with missile strikes against Israeli targets within 48 hours. This triggers a defensive response from Israel and potential US-led coalition intervention within 72 hours. The conflict could spread to regional allies like Hezbollah and Hamas, leading to heightened regional instability and increased geopolitical risk for global markets. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict between Israel and Iran remains unresolved with both s

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel launches fresh airstrikes on Iran, escalating tensions in the region. Iran retaliates with missile strikes against Israeli targets within 48 hours. This triggers a defensive response from Israel and potential US-led coalition intervention within 72 hours. The conflict could spread to regional allies like Hezbollah and Hamas, leading to heightened regional instability and increased geopolitical risk for global markets. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict between Israel and Iran remains unresolved with both s