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geopolitical··severity 6

Иран атаковал две израильские авиабазы, сообщает КСИР

Атакам подверглись авиабаза Неватим на юге Израиля и авиабаза Тель-Ноф недалеко от Тель-Авива.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran launches further attacks on Israeli targets, including potential retaliation against civilian infrastructure or military installations in Israel. The international community condemns the attack and calls for de-escalation. Israel retaliates with airstrikes targeting Iranian assets within its own territory, potentially escalating to a broader conflict involving regional allies. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Israel maintains a strong response through diplomatic channels, while Iran continues to conduct attacks on Is

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Iran announces further attacks on Israeli targets, including potential strikes against civilian infrastructure or military installations in Israel. The UN Security Council holds an emergency session condemning the attack and calling for de, escalation.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran launches further attacks on Israeli targets, including potential retaliation against civilian infrastructure or military installations in Israel. The international community condemns the attack and calls for de-escalation. Israel retaliates with airstrikes targeting Iranian assets within its own territory, potentially escalating to a broader conflict involving regional allies. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Israel maintains a strong response through diplomatic channels, while Iran continues to conduct attacks on Is

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Iran announces further attacks on Israeli targets, including potential strikes against civilian infrastructure or military installations in Israel. The UN Security Council holds an emergency session condemning the attack and calling for de, escalation.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran launches further attacks on Israeli targets, including potential retaliation against civilian infrastructure or military installations in Israel. The international community condemns the attack and calls for de-escalation. Israel retaliates with airstrikes targeting Iranian assets within its own territory, potentially escalating to a broader conflict involving regional allies. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Israel maintains a strong response through diplomatic channels, while Iran continues to conduct attacks on Is

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Iran announces further attacks on Israeli targets, including potential strikes against civilian infrastructure or military installations in Israel. The UN Security Council holds an emergency session condemning the attack and calling for de, escalation.

Первичный источник: TASS English

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